6-27-07: Vix slipped sharply

6-26-07：Vix spiked, but indices lower slightly!

Market summary

Dow13,337.66-14.39 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq2,574.16-2.92 (-0.11%)
S&P 5001,492.89-4.85 (-0.32%)
10y bond5.06%+0.01(0.20%)

一首让人动容的老歌：明天会更好！

6-22-07(Fri.) sell off

* July19call, high0.6 low0.4, july20call high0.5 low0.3

Should You Buy Stocks That Are Down 5 Consective Days?
......
These are stocks that have closed down for five or more consecutive days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that close down for five or more days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge......

The Life of Vix Jun Call (20,19,18,17)

The life of VIX Jun Put(12,13)

*6-19(Teu.) SPX closed at 1533.70, Vix closed at 12.84
6-20(Wed.) SPX opened at 1533.68, Vix opened at 12.76
However, Vro set at 13.01, very interesting!

Bond basics

Sector performance and Vix option of 6-13-07

6-12-07 sector performance and Vix option

Earnings of the week
Teu.
LEH 1.88 1.69 BMO

Thur.
ADBE 0.35 0.31 AMC
BSC 3.50 3.72 12:00PM
FRE 1.09 2.80 BMO
GS 4.79 4.78 BMO

Sector performance the day after sell-off

Utility solf off the hardest, but climbed the least
Technology sector seems the strongest in these 2 up/down days

Vix straddle view

6-7-07 sell off and Vix spike

Vix and its option on 6-1-70

Stock traded higher in a big downday

crzo,hte,x,b,vsec,jci,ges,dltr,nile,aapl

crzo and hte are the rare standouts in the oil sector, up in up volume

x in steel sector is in new high, helped by JPM's upgrade

vsec and b are the leaders in the Aerospace/defense sector, and b was recommended by Cramer

jci in machinery sector was recommended by an analyst

ges, dltr and nile are the big winners in retailer sector

aapl, as always, just ignored the big market and moved in her own way.

Among other strong stocks are ice,crox, hpq,nvda,goog

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/careerist/34834

台湾股市泡沫是大陆的前车之鉴──台湾股市从泡沫泛滥到破灭的过程
香港《经济导报》2007年第22期朱磊/(提要)大陆股市狂升的情景，早在上世纪八十年代中期的台湾也出现过。当年由于台湾连续出现贸易顺差，大量外资涌入，迫使新台币大幅升值，造成股市和房市狂升不止，泡沫化严重。当局屡屡采取措施对应，并祭出了釜底抽薪的一系列办法，其后金融泡沫破灭，台湾经济也受到严重打击，彻底告别了经济高增长时代，遗患直至今时今日。台湾股市泡沫是上世纪八十年代中期，台湾出现连续贸易顺差，同时大量外资涌入，形成国际收支双盈余，迫使新台币兑美元汇率短短两年间大幅升值近40%，由于民间的投资机会和渠道有限，大量游资进入股票和房地产市场，引发股市和房市泡沫。从1986年台湾股价指数超过1000点，到1990年超过12000点，期间经历长达40个月的多头，而后股价开始狂跌，在不到八个月的时间内，股价跌落万点以上，到1990年10月1日，跌到2485点，造成台湾空前的泡沫破灭，并给台湾经济带来长期的负面影响。
......

1. 止损，止损，止损！
2. 有疑问的时候，离场！
3. 忘掉你的入场价
4. 别频繁交易
5. 不要向下摊平
6. 别让利润变成亏损
7. 跟着股市走，别跟朋友走！
8. 该卖股票的时候，要当机立断，千万别迟疑！
9.别将“股价很低了”当成买的理由，也别将“股价很高了”当成卖的理由！
10. 定好计划，按既定方针办
11. 市场从来不会错，你自己的想法常常是错的

http://huarenbbs.com/showthread.php?t=488

Vix option

Long Vix with Credit：Sell (middle term) Put+Buy Call.

Risk: If vix stays under strike price for next few month (not likely！), you will lose the premium paid for the call.

Reward: If Vix spikes above the strike price, sell the Call and buy back the puts to lock profits.

Symbol Last Change Vol Bid Ask Open Int. Symbol Last Change Vol Bid Ask Open Int.
JUN
VIXFC 0.45 -0.05 1,647.00 0.40 0.55 47,046.00 15.00 VIXRC 2.05 +0.15 100.00 1.95 2.10 9,786.00

July
VIXGC 1.14 -0.06 78.00 1.10 1.20 28,996.00 15.00 VIXSC 1.90 -0.02 8,030.00 1.85 1.90 13,264.00

Aug
VIXHC 1.60 522.00 1.55 1.65 12,700.00 15.00 VIXTC 1.95 -0.05 300.00 1.90 2.10 5,184.00

Sept
VIXIC 1.95 +0.11 46.00 1.80 1.95 15,329.00 15.00 VIXUC 1.95 15,000.00 1.90 2.15 15,000.00

Zacks #1 Rank Top Performers:
FWLT, CRY, ASK,SNHY, DRYS

How to trade Vix

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/06/NewVIX.asp

http://www.learnmoney.co.uk/spread-betting/news-nov-3.html

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/vix.htm

http://www.learnmoney.co.uk/spread-betting/news-oct-3.html

http://www.thestreet.com/options/options/10266389.html
... the primary players in these VIX options under "normal circumstances" will be call buyers or put sellers...


http://w3.quris.net/ebulletin/0702/SST_0702_OptionsCorner.jsp


http://optionsguy.financialblogs.com/post/blog/decoding_the_vix_ii.html
...VIX option is priced based upon the VIX futures contract , which is tradable, not the VIX index, which is not tradable....

http://www.theoptionclub.com/trading_vix_options.html

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/search/label/CFE

when the VIX jumped 64% from February 26th to February 27th, the nearest futures, the March ’07 VIX, moved less than half as much in percentage terms. Looking further out, the August ’07 VIX futures moved about one tenth of the VIX index, while the November ’07 VIX futures moved about one thirtieth as much as the VIX did.

Margin requirement:

Margin:Purchases of puts or calls with 9 months or less until expiration must be paid for in full. Writers of uncovered puts or calls must deposit / maintain 100% of the option proceeds* plus 15% of the aggregate contract value (current index level x $100) minus the amount by which the option is out-of-the-money, if any, subject to a minimum for calls of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate contract value and a minimum for puts of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate exercise price amount. (*For calculating maintenance margin, use option current market value instead of option proceeds.) Additional margin may be required pursuant to Exchange Rule 12.10.

For example,

1. if sell 13 put (of vix at 14) for 0.4: 0.4x100+(14-13)x100x15%=235, and 5k can sell 21 puts.

2. if sell 20 call of (vix@14) for 0.4: 0.4x100+14x100x10%=180, and 5k can sell 27 calls.

Vix on wikipedia.org

Vix White book http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf

Risk: there 2 of risk. one is OE vix price, which has a risk to trade over or below the strick price of sold call or put. this can be well controlled by only selling option deep OTM, for example, call above 25, put below 13 (or 40% away from current Vix). For the past year, there had never been a case for vix ended higher than 18 in OE day. So it may be safe to sell call with strike price over 19. but still need to be agile in watching vix. on the low price end of vix for put, it's more predicatible according to the current market performance.

the 2nd risk is margin maitance risk. I had lost half of my account value by not knowing enough of this risk. this is like a monster who can completely ruin your yard if you let him out of control!

Qs

ASTI
need to solve this problem, stop at 7$!

Payable Ex Date Company Symbol Optionable? Ratio Announced Add To My
Calendar

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

May 04 May 07 AZZ Inc. AZZ N 2-1 Apr 09
May 09 May 10 AptarGroup ATR N 2-1 Apr 18
May 11 May 14 Meridian Bioscience VIVO Y 3-2 Apr 19
May 21 May 22 IDEX Corp IEX Y 3-2 Apr 04
May 22 May 23 Brookfield Pptys BPO N 3-2 Feb 07
May 25 May 29 Atlas America ATLS N 3-2 Apr 27
May 28 Gildan Activewear GIL N 2-1 May 03
May 29 May 30 Potash POT Y 3-1 May 02
May 30 Tesoro Petroleum TSO Y 2-1 May 01
May 30 May 31 FEMSA FMX Y 3-1 May 16 Add
May 31 Varian Semi VSEA Y 3-2 Apr 24 Add
May 31 Jun 01 Geo Group GEO Y 2-1 May 01 Add
Jun 01 NRG Energy NRG Y 2-1 May 02 Add
Jun 01 Stericycle SRCL Y 2-1 May 17 Add

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/07/s5.html?tso

Naz: resistance, 2580
support, 2531

qqqq: resistance, 46, 45.5
support, 47

Dow, support 13340

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Stocks withstood the storm of 5-24
NTRI,WEN,ESRX,WCG,CRH,ACL,AMZN,UAUA,RIMM

MITBBS psp swing short/long list for 5-25
AFFX,KBH,LEN,WCI,VMC,dj

Railroad on Buffet

Watch list for Mon.
Bull
CHAP,NRG,TSO,VLO,OIS,CMC,ATPG,ATI
Possible Bull
NTRI,CPO,SCHN,SPH,RS,FLR,PCU,IMCL
Watch for bullish reversal
DRYS,DSX,EXM,DE,LEH,WYNN

Watch list for Fri. 5-18-07
Bull
RS,CHAP,APU,BWLD,VSEA,FFIV,FCSX,NTRI,TSO,ATI and FLR,USU
Bear
FD,ANDE,LEH,YHOO

watch list for wed.
drys,ntri,akam,amgn

Earnings of the week
RNO0.19
SINA0.18
TBSI0.40

AMAT0.28
CPWR0.17
DCX0.93
FIGN/A
HD0.59
JASO0.17
KALU1.07
MR0.11

MT1.43
BEAS0.12
DE2.41
FD0.20
HPQ0.68
CRM0.08
SPTN0.28

FMCN0.19
JCP1.03
KSS0.62
MRVL0.09
JWN0.56

Mostly down due to earnings
WNG,CRYP,KNOT,GLBC,VTAL,SNS,THQI,FL

Earnings
SPH,ATPG,ME,ARXT,BIG,MESA

IPO
ACM

Upgrades
BRL,PEIX,AU,DSUP,MA,B,GGC,NVT,MTG,PZZA,LCAV

Buy intiated
kalu,auxl,netl,xlnx,tsra,nvda,ptt

Trader's new high
dnn,hayn,snhy,crox,teso,bez,fmc,lz,clf
cry,mdr,lxu,usu,rri,bdc,bphx,ctb,atk

AKS story

Yesterday,bot 250 shares of AKS @ 32.36 in the morning when it broken the previous day's high at 32.25(also 52 week's high), but the stock then traded sideway for the rest of the day and closed at 32.06. I didn't sell the stock as it didn't break down and still showed some strength.

This morning, I found there was buyout news about AKS, and the stock was trading around 38.5-38.8 BH by the time I opened the computer. Wow, this was like a lottery. Then I checked GOOGLE BH chart, and found the stock was ever traded up to 39.5, and the news said the buyout from MT offered about 40$ a share. My mind was flying, and was full of hope that the stock may go higher again, but never ever think about the speclative nature of such news and the downside risks from here. The stock slided gradually BH and opened at 37.5, I just watched it slided into 35 area. Around 11AM, I set up a stop limit order at 35.2/35.2 and left for the day. When I came back around 4PM and found my shares were sold as expected. The market closed at about 35.

Lessons: 1. It should be sold BH at ask price around 38.5. Because it has risen so much and the news has not confirmed yet by both parties, and it may have a long way to go. Another possibility is this could be just a rumor as yhoo had with msft a few days ago.
2. 38.5 is not that far from the alleged offering at 40$, and usually there will be some time value left for the stock to trade up before the final close of such a deal.
3. when the market opens, I should set a tight stop limit order, at least above 37, to protect the values already gained.

AK Steel Shares Surge on Report of Bid

ATI（111.77） looks particular hopeful in short term, June 120 call 2.5 would be reasonable!
Sector Snap: Titanium Producers

ER watch of the week

EGLE0.29
JCOM0.32
NFG0.87
WCG0.55
WYNN0.55

BRNC0.53
CSCO0.33
DBN/A
DYN0.03
FTEK0.06
HOC1.07
PCLN0.28

GSS-0.01
LM1.17
SPH2.79
TM2.13
TXU1.11
UBB2.05

AIG1.54

ALU-0.01
VOLV1.41

Sold the may 125 call @7.8(bot @5.4 two days ago)

Ideal Rebounce play of the day: CME

Techinically missed this rebounce, but in the afternoon, entered May 520 call @8.8 in Paper trading(stop order 7.6, bot @8.8, not quite understood?)

Tomorrow, will keep watch it closely as it closed below EMA200!

CME

TSO had a pretty good run today, the may 120 call hit 8.5 at noon. But in the afternoon, it also retreated sharply with the whole market.

Should sell the call when the stock broke down the support around 124.5! But why didn't? Because I thought it would be up again, however, this is just a hope and merely hope, though it will report earning on thur. In fact, it has already made a crazy run, and it is time to have a break. Another thing, I should keep in mind is, the target is set to reach 128 before the final OE week, and today it has reached 126, the option value should have been equally realized! why not seeing this?（eventually, I sold 1 call near close around 5.4 by considering don't let the profit runs into a loss!)

Tomorrow, if the market opens with berish sentiment, sell the other call!

AMZN June straddle view

Bear Spread

1. buy Jun60 put @~2.55/sell Jun52.5put @~0.8/while stock @62.6

DNDN straddle view

1. buy Jun 15 call @~5.20, while stock @15.15

Earnings of the Week

AHM 0.46
ROCMN/A
VZ0.54
XFMLN/A

GMR0.69
OIS0.99
PG0.74
SIRI-0.11
SOHU0.14
SPAR0.30
UNTD0.25

GRMN0.59
GNSS-0.30
HP0.82
ICE0.72
JDSU0.10
LVS0.32
RNWK0.17
SUN1.39
SYMC0.20
TWX0.20
VRSN0.22

CNQ0.98
CELG0.20
RIO1.05
FFH6.00
FE0.81
GM0.87
NBL1.01
OMX0.93
OMG0.84
QLGC0.23
SIMG0.05
TSO1.87

AU0.36
FIRE-0.23
TS0.88
WPO8.64

Reasons to Worry About China Stocks

By Helene Meisler

RealMoney.com Contributor 4/24/2007 7:45 AM EDT

2nd link here

股市还是晴雨表吗？（ZT)
2007年04月26日

人们一直有股市是经济增长晴雨表的说法，不过，近几年来，这只晴雨表的准确性实在不怎么样。从2004年初到2006年一季度，美国经济实现了平均增幅3.4%的不俗业绩，而这期间道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数只上涨了6%。从那之后至今，经济增幅放慢到略高于2%的水平，而道指至昨天的升幅却达到了18%，收于13089.89点，这也是该指数第一次收在13,000点之上。

那么，股市走势到底是对经济增长前景的反映呢，还是与经济增长毫不相干？经济学家对此莫衷一是。美林公司首席北美经济学家戴维•罗森伯格(David Rosenberg)认为，当前股市出现了一种误导性的乐观。他说，经济表现和股市走势之间出现了脱节现象。刚刚过去的四个季度里，美国经济折合成年率的增幅连续低于3%，而从过去60年的经历看，这种情况之后都会接着出现衰退。虽然罗森伯格并未预言会有衰退，但他认为出现衰退的风险要高于市场的一般看法。

而纽约投资银行ISI Group首席经济学家埃德•海曼(Ed Hyman)则属于另外一派。他认为，股市（在反映经济形势方面）的表现无可指责。1985年和1995年的时候，联邦储备委员会(Fed)将利率上调到足以抑制经济增速、控制通货膨胀的水平。投资者相信，此后不需要再进一步上调利率了，过高的利率将有可能将经济推向衰退。海曼预计，今年余下的9个月，经济增长将进一步放缓到折合年率1.5%的水平，Fed相应地将把基准利率下调75个基点。他说，利率下降对股市的推动将大于经济增长放缓和企业利润下滑对股市的负面影响。目前来说，股市并未对近期的企业利润情况作出反应。实际上，企业利润增幅一直在大幅下滑，同时，美国生产率增长放慢、能源价格居高不下和可能阻碍全球化的贸易保护主义思潮更给经济前景蒙上了阴影。实际上，股市从去年夏季开始的上涨行情主要是受Fed停止加息的刺激。

长期以来，股市一直都被视为一种领先经济指标，尽管有时股市发出的信号并不准确。股市走势是数百万人对企业利润前景的各种不同判断的综合结果，而企业利润对经济波动非常敏感。不过，其他一些因素也影响着股市，比如利率、进出股市的资金、投资者对风险的承受意愿等等。由于多种因素影响股市，因此，专家们对股市与经济形势的关系往往有不同的解读。ISI的海曼说，通常认为的强劲的股市需要有强劲的经济作支撑的看法完完全全是错误的。他说，上世纪八十年代初以来，Fed采取了在预见到将出现通货膨胀压力时、也就是在经济扩张阶段的早期就提前上调利率的做法。这种“先下手为强”的紧缩措施的确抑制了经济增长，但它防止了更深程度的通货膨胀的爆发。在紧缩阶段，即使企业利润还在增长，股市上涨也会很困难，因为投资者担心Fed会在加息道路上走得太远、进而有可能将经济推向衰退。一旦Fed停止加息，投资者会认为既然通货膨胀已得到控制，那么衰退也就不大可能，股市会重新开始放开手脚。

Fed并不总能保证利率调整的成功。1990年和2001年两轮加息后就伴随着衰退。不过海曼以英国、澳大利亚和加拿大为例指出，这些国家自九十年代初以来就在持续增长，基本未发生中断，这表明，只要通货膨胀保持平和，长期的经济增长仍是有可能的。他说，从现在的情况看，美国还处于温和通货膨胀的状态。不过，美林的罗森伯格看法有所不同。他说，八、九十年代的情况是特例，他还认为，现在没有什么特别因素能像前两次经济快速增长时的减税和互联网热那样大大推动经济增长。世界大企业联合会(Conference Board)领先指数已连续三个月出现较上年同期下降的情况，而同期股市却在上升。股市本身也是大企业联合会领先指标的成分要素之一。罗森伯格说，在过去60年时间里，每当出现这种情况时，之后都会有衰退发生，其间只在1967年发生过一次例外。目前，在大企业指数中显示衰退迹象的因素有资本商品订单和建筑开工许可以及短期利率高于长期利率。

还有其他一些迹象也显示出经济增长盛极而衰的苗头。比如Fed前主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)就提醒大家注意毛利率的问题。从经济整体范围来看，去年三季度的利润率升到了创纪录水平，随后四季度开始小幅收窄。格林斯潘认为，上世纪八、九十年代的经济增长受到了长期利率下降和九十年代生产率受信息技术推动意外地加速上升的影响。而现在，这两个因素都已不复存在。花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)经济学家斯蒂芬•魏廷(Steven Wieting)说，自从2001年年底以来，股市走势一直落后于企业利润增长。据他估计，投资者对美国经济长期增幅的预期在2%-2.5%，而许多经济学家预计的增幅约为3%。他说，市场对美国经济长期增长前景并无很高期待。Greg Ip

ER to watch

IMCL 4/26
GERN 4/27
TSO 5/3
BRLC 5/15

Weekly ER

AMGN1.08
JDAS0.24
JNPR0.19

AKS0.45
AL 1.47
AMZN 0.15
T 0.61
BP 1.31
CME 3.62
IPS 2.60
X 1.85

AMAG -0.59
AKAM 0.28
ATI 1.83
AAPL 0.64
GLW 0.26
ISE 0.45
RMBS 0.10

BZH -0.14
BRCM 0.27
CF 0.65
CENX 1.95
CFC 0.78
XOM 1.51
SNDK 0.18
VLO 1.76

BIDU 0.33
CCJ 0.14
CVX 1.66
GT -0.02