An example of accumulation on post-break out retreat
"Magno Arms" What Does It Indicate? Nothing Good
5 years ago
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Friday, June 29, 2007
Thursday, June 28, 2007
DENNIS GARTMAN'S NOT-SO-SIMPLE RULES OF TRADING
1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position... not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading's carcinogen;
it is trading's driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!
2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.
3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding
losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.
4. This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget
strength, and weakness, weakness.
5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand
it however, and fewer still embrace it.
6. "Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent." These are Keynes' words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the
academics would have us believe.
7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into
the wettest paper sacks, for they break most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.
8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is
not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly.
In "good times," even errors turn to profits; in "bad times," the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.
10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we've known have the
simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here!
11. In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, "When they
are cryin', you should be buyin'! And when they are yellin', you should be sellin'!"
12. Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent and Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections: Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are;
we accept it as fact and we move on.
13. There Is Never Just One Cockroach: The lesson of bad news on most stocks is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with
detrimental effect upon price, until such time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions.
14. Be Patient with Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient with Losing Trades: The older we get, the more small losses we take each year...
and our profits grow accordingly.
15. Do More of That Which Is Working and Less of That Which Is Not: This works in life as well as trading. Do the things that have been proven
of merit. Add to winning trades; cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a "secret" to trading (and of life), this is it.
16. All Rules Are Meant To Be Broken.... but only very, very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and
still prosper.
1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position... not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading's carcinogen;
it is trading's driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!
2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.
3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding
losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.
4. This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget
strength, and weakness, weakness.
5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand
it however, and fewer still embrace it.
6. "Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent." These are Keynes' words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the
academics would have us believe.
7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into
the wettest paper sacks, for they break most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.
8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is
not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly.
In "good times," even errors turn to profits; in "bad times," the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.
10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we've known have the
simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here!
11. In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, "When they
are cryin', you should be buyin'! And when they are yellin', you should be sellin'!"
12. Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent and Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections: Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are;
we accept it as fact and we move on.
13. There Is Never Just One Cockroach: The lesson of bad news on most stocks is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with
detrimental effect upon price, until such time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions.
14. Be Patient with Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient with Losing Trades: The older we get, the more small losses we take each year...
and our profits grow accordingly.
15. Do More of That Which Is Working and Less of That Which Is Not: This works in life as well as trading. Do the things that have been proven
of merit. Add to winning trades; cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a "secret" to trading (and of life), this is it.
16. All Rules Are Meant To Be Broken.... but only very, very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and
still prosper.
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Friday, June 22, 2007
Monday, June 18, 2007
Should You Buy Stocks That Are Down 5 Consective Days?
......
These are stocks that have closed down for five or more consecutive days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that close down for five or more days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge......
......
These are stocks that have closed down for five or more consecutive days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that close down for five or more days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge......
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Sunday, June 10, 2007
Friday, June 08, 2007
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Stock traded higher in a big downday
crzo,hte,x,b,vsec,jci,ges,dltr,nile,aapl
crzo and hte are the rare standouts in the oil sector, up in up volume
x in steel sector is in new high, helped by JPM's upgrade
vsec and b are the leaders in the Aerospace/defense sector, and b was recommended by Cramer
jci in machinery sector was recommended by an analyst
ges, dltr and nile are the big winners in retailer sector
aapl, as always, just ignored the big market and moved in her own way.
Among other strong stocks are ice,crox, hpq,nvda,goog
crzo,hte,x,b,vsec,jci,ges,dltr,nile,aapl
crzo and hte are the rare standouts in the oil sector, up in up volume
x in steel sector is in new high, helped by JPM's upgrade
vsec and b are the leaders in the Aerospace/defense sector, and b was recommended by Cramer
jci in machinery sector was recommended by an analyst
ges, dltr and nile are the big winners in retailer sector
aapl, as always, just ignored the big market and moved in her own way.
Among other strong stocks are ice,crox, hpq,nvda,goog
Monday, June 04, 2007
Sunday, June 03, 2007
台湾股市泡沫是大陆的前车之鉴──台湾股市从泡沫泛滥到破灭的过程
香港《经济导报》2007年第22期朱磊/(提要)大陆股市狂升的情景，早在上世纪八十年代中期的台湾也出现过。当年由于台湾连续出现贸易顺差，大量外资涌入，迫使新台币大幅升值，造成股市和房市狂升不止，泡沫化严重。当局屡屡采取措施对应，并祭出了釜底抽薪的一系列办法，其后金融泡沫破灭，台湾经济也受到严重打击，彻底告别了经济高增长时代，遗患直至今时今日。台湾股市泡沫是上世纪八十年代中期，台湾出现连续贸易顺差，同时大量外资涌入，形成国际收支双盈余，迫使新台币兑美元汇率短短两年间大幅升值近40%，由于民间的投资机会和渠道有限，大量游资进入股票和房地产市场，引发股市和房市泡沫。从1986年台湾股价指数超过1000点，到1990年超过12000点，期间经历长达40个月的多头，而后股价开始狂跌，在不到八个月的时间内，股价跌落万点以上，到1990年10月1日，跌到2485点，造成台湾空前的泡沫破灭，并给台湾经济带来长期的负面影响。
......
香港《经济导报》2007年第22期朱磊/(提要)大陆股市狂升的情景，早在上世纪八十年代中期的台湾也出现过。当年由于台湾连续出现贸易顺差，大量外资涌入，迫使新台币大幅升值，造成股市和房市狂升不止，泡沫化严重。当局屡屡采取措施对应，并祭出了釜底抽薪的一系列办法，其后金融泡沫破灭，台湾经济也受到严重打击，彻底告别了经济高增长时代，遗患直至今时今日。台湾股市泡沫是上世纪八十年代中期，台湾出现连续贸易顺差，同时大量外资涌入，形成国际收支双盈余，迫使新台币兑美元汇率短短两年间大幅升值近40%，由于民间的投资机会和渠道有限，大量游资进入股票和房地产市场，引发股市和房市泡沫。从1986年台湾股价指数超过1000点，到1990年超过12000点，期间经历长达40个月的多头，而后股价开始狂跌，在不到八个月的时间内，股价跌落万点以上，到1990年10月1日，跌到2485点，造成台湾空前的泡沫破灭，并给台湾经济带来长期的负面影响。
......
Saturday, June 02, 2007
1. 止损，止损，止损！
2. 有疑问的时候，离场！
3. 忘掉你的入场价
4. 别频繁交易
5. 不要向下摊平
6. 别让利润变成亏损
7. 跟着股市走，别跟朋友走！
8. 该卖股票的时候，要当机立断，千万别迟疑！
9.别将“股价很低了”当成买的理由，也别将“股价很高了”当成卖的理由！
10. 定好计划，按既定方针办
11. 市场从来不会错，你自己的想法常常是错的
http://huarenbbs.com/showthread.php?t=488
2. 有疑问的时候，离场！
3. 忘掉你的入场价
4. 别频繁交易
5. 不要向下摊平
6. 别让利润变成亏损
7. 跟着股市走，别跟朋友走！
8. 该卖股票的时候，要当机立断，千万别迟疑！
9.别将“股价很低了”当成买的理由，也别将“股价很高了”当成卖的理由！
10. 定好计划，按既定方针办
11. 市场从来不会错，你自己的想法常常是错的
http://huarenbbs.com/showthread.php?t=488
Vix option
Long Vix with Credit：Sell (middle term) Put+Buy Call.
Risk: If vix stays under strike price for next few month (not likely！), you will lose the premium paid for the call.
Reward: If Vix spikes above the strike price, sell the Call and buy back the puts to lock profits.
Symbol Last Change Vol Bid Ask Open Int. Symbol Last Change Vol Bid Ask Open Int.
JUN
VIXFC 0.45 -0.05 1,647.00 0.40 0.55 47,046.00 15.00 VIXRC 2.05 +0.15 100.00 1.95 2.10 9,786.00
July
VIXGC 1.14 -0.06 78.00 1.10 1.20 28,996.00 15.00 VIXSC 1.90 -0.02 8,030.00 1.85 1.90 13,264.00
Aug
VIXHC 1.60 522.00 1.55 1.65 12,700.00 15.00 VIXTC 1.95 -0.05 300.00 1.90 2.10 5,184.00
Sept
VIXIC 1.95 +0.11 46.00 1.80 1.95 15,329.00 15.00 VIXUC 1.95 15,000.00 1.90 2.15 15,000.00
Long Vix with Credit：Sell (middle term) Put+Buy Call.
Risk: If vix stays under strike price for next few month (not likely！), you will lose the premium paid for the call.
Reward: If Vix spikes above the strike price, sell the Call and buy back the puts to lock profits.
Symbol Last Change Vol Bid Ask Open Int. Symbol Last Change Vol Bid Ask Open Int.
JUN
VIXFC 0.45 -0.05 1,647.00 0.40 0.55 47,046.00 15.00 VIXRC 2.05 +0.15 100.00 1.95 2.10 9,786.00
July
VIXGC 1.14 -0.06 78.00 1.10 1.20 28,996.00 15.00 VIXSC 1.90 -0.02 8,030.00 1.85 1.90 13,264.00
Aug
VIXHC 1.60 522.00 1.55 1.65 12,700.00 15.00 VIXTC 1.95 -0.05 300.00 1.90 2.10 5,184.00
Sept
VIXIC 1.95 +0.11 46.00 1.80 1.95 15,329.00 15.00 VIXUC 1.95 15,000.00 1.90 2.15 15,000.00
Friday, June 01, 2007
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/06/NewVIX.asp
http://www.learnmoney.co.uk/spread-betting/news-nov-3.html
http://www.zealllc.com/2002/vix.htm
http://www.learnmoney.co.uk/spread-betting/news-oct-3.html
http://www.thestreet.com/options/options/10266389.html
... the primary players in these VIX options under "normal circumstances" will be call buyers or put sellers...
http://w3.quris.net/ebulletin/0702/SST_0702_OptionsCorner.jsp
http://optionsguy.financialblogs.com/post/blog/decoding_the_vix_ii.html
...VIX option is priced based upon the VIX futures contract , which is tradable, not the VIX index, which is not tradable....
http://www.theoptionclub.com/trading_vix_options.html
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/search/label/CFE
when the VIX jumped 64% from February 26th to February 27th, the nearest futures, the March ’07 VIX, moved less than half as much in percentage terms. Looking further out, the August ’07 VIX futures moved about one tenth of the VIX index, while the November ’07 VIX futures moved about one thirtieth as much as the VIX did.
Margin:Purchases of puts or calls with 9 months or less until expiration must be paid for in full. Writers of uncovered puts or calls must deposit / maintain 100% of the option proceeds* plus 15% of the aggregate contract value (current index level x $100) minus the amount by which the option is out-of-the-money, if any, subject to a minimum for calls of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate contract value and a minimum for puts of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate exercise price amount. (*For calculating maintenance margin, use option current market value instead of option proceeds.) Additional margin may be required pursuant to Exchange Rule 12.10.
For example,
1. if sell 13 put (of vix at 14) for 0.4: 0.4x100+(14-13)x100x15%=235, and 5k can sell 21 puts.
2. if sell 20 call of (vix@14) for 0.4: 0.4x100+14x100x10%=180, and 5k can sell 27 calls.
Vix on wikipedia.org
Vix White book http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf
Risk: there 2 of risk. one is OE vix price, which has a risk to trade over or below the strick price of sold call or put. this can be well controlled by only selling option deep OTM, for example, call above 25, put below 13 (or 40% away from current Vix). For the past year, there had never been a case for vix ended higher than 18 in OE day. So it may be safe to sell call with strike price over 19. but still need to be agile in watching vix. on the low price end of vix for put, it's more predicatible according to the current market performance.
the 2nd risk is margin maitance risk. I had lost half of my account value by not knowing enough of this risk. this is like a monster who can completely ruin your yard if you let him out of control!
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Payable Ex Date Company Symbol Optionable? Ratio Announced Add To My
Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
May 04 May 07 AZZ Inc. AZZ N 2-1 Apr 09
May 09 May 10 AptarGroup ATR N 2-1 Apr 18
May 11 May 14 Meridian Bioscience VIVO Y 3-2 Apr 19
May 21 May 22 IDEX Corp IEX Y 3-2 Apr 04
May 22 May 23 Brookfield Pptys BPO N 3-2 Feb 07
May 25 May 29 Atlas America ATLS N 3-2 Apr 27
May 28 Gildan Activewear GIL N 2-1 May 03
May 29 May 30 Potash POT Y 3-1 May 02
May 30 Tesoro Petroleum TSO Y 2-1 May 01
May 30 May 31 FEMSA FMX Y 3-1 May 16 Add
May 31 Varian Semi VSEA Y 3-2 Apr 24 Add
May 31 Jun 01 Geo Group GEO Y 2-1 May 01 Add
Jun 01 NRG Energy NRG Y 2-1 May 02 Add
Jun 01 Stericycle SRCL Y 2-1 May 17 Add
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/07/s5.html?tso
Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
May 04 May 07 AZZ Inc. AZZ N 2-1 Apr 09
May 09 May 10 AptarGroup ATR N 2-1 Apr 18
May 11 May 14 Meridian Bioscience VIVO Y 3-2 Apr 19
May 21 May 22 IDEX Corp IEX Y 3-2 Apr 04
May 22 May 23 Brookfield Pptys BPO N 3-2 Feb 07
May 25 May 29 Atlas America ATLS N 3-2 Apr 27
May 28 Gildan Activewear GIL N 2-1 May 03
May 29 May 30 Potash POT Y 3-1 May 02
May 30 Tesoro Petroleum TSO Y 2-1 May 01
May 30 May 31 FEMSA FMX Y 3-1 May 16 Add
May 31 Varian Semi VSEA Y 3-2 Apr 24 Add
May 31 Jun 01 Geo Group GEO Y 2-1 May 01 Add
Jun 01 NRG Energy NRG Y 2-1 May 02 Add
Jun 01 Stericycle SRCL Y 2-1 May 17 Add
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/07/s5.html?tso
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Stocks withstood the storm of 5-24
NTRI,WEN,ESRX,WCG,CRH,ACL,AMZN,UAUA,RIMM
MITBBS psp swing short/long list for 5-25
AFFX,KBH,LEN,WCI,VMC,dj
NTRI,WEN,ESRX,WCG,CRH,ACL,AMZN,UAUA,RIMM
MITBBS psp swing short/long list for 5-25
AFFX,KBH,LEN,WCI,VMC,dj
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Friday, May 18, 2007
Watch list for Mon.
Bull
CHAP,NRG,TSO,VLO,OIS,CMC,ATPG,ATI
Possible Bull
NTRI,CPO,SCHN,SPH,RS,FLR,PCU,IMCL
Watch for bullish reversal
DRYS,DSX,EXM,DE,LEH,WYNN
Bull
CHAP,NRG,TSO,VLO,OIS,CMC,ATPG,ATI
Possible Bull
NTRI,CPO,SCHN,SPH,RS,FLR,PCU,IMCL
Watch for bullish reversal
DRYS,DSX,EXM,DE,LEH,WYNN
Watch list for Fri. 5-18-07
Bull
RS,CHAP,APU,BWLD,VSEA,FFIV,FCSX,NTRI,TSO,ATI and FLR,USU
Bear
FD,ANDE,LEH,YHOO
Bull
RS,CHAP,APU,BWLD,VSEA,FFIV,FCSX,NTRI,TSO,ATI and FLR,USU
Bear
FD,ANDE,LEH,YHOO
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Earnings
SPH,ATPG,ME,ARXT,BIG,MESA
IPO
ACM
Upgrades
BRL,PEIX,AU,DSUP,MA,B,GGC,NVT,MTG,PZZA,LCAV
Buy intiated
kalu,auxl,netl,xlnx,tsra,nvda,ptt
Trader's new high
dnn,hayn,snhy,crox,teso,bez,fmc,lz,clf
cry,mdr,lxu,usu,rri,bdc,bphx,ctb,atk
SPH,ATPG,ME,ARXT,BIG,MESA
IPO
ACM
Upgrades
BRL,PEIX,AU,DSUP,MA,B,GGC,NVT,MTG,PZZA,LCAV
Buy intiated
kalu,auxl,netl,xlnx,tsra,nvda,ptt
Trader's new high
dnn,hayn,snhy,crox,teso,bez,fmc,lz,clf
cry,mdr,lxu,usu,rri,bdc,bphx,ctb,atk
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
AKS story
Yesterday,bot 250 shares of AKS @ 32.36 in the morning when it broken the previous day's high at 32.25(also 52 week's high), but the stock then traded sideway for the rest of the day and closed at 32.06. I didn't sell the stock as it didn't break down and still showed some strength.
This morning, I found there was buyout news about AKS, and the stock was trading around 38.5-38.8 BH by the time I opened the computer. Wow, this was like a lottery. Then I checked GOOGLE BH chart, and found the stock was ever traded up to 39.5, and the news said the buyout from MT offered about 40$ a share. My mind was flying, and was full of hope that the stock may go higher again, but never ever think about the speclative nature of such news and the downside risks from here. The stock slided gradually BH and opened at 37.5, I just watched it slided into 35 area. Around 11AM, I set up a stop limit order at 35.2/35.2 and left for the day. When I came back around 4PM and found my shares were sold as expected. The market closed at about 35.
Lessons: 1. It should be sold BH at ask price around 38.5. Because it has risen so much and the news has not confirmed yet by both parties, and it may have a long way to go. Another possibility is this could be just a rumor as yhoo had with msft a few days ago.
2. 38.5 is not that far from the alleged offering at 40$, and usually there will be some time value left for the stock to trade up before the final close of such a deal.
3. when the market opens, I should set a tight stop limit order, at least above 37, to protect the values already gained.
Monday, May 07, 2007
ATI（111.77） looks particular hopeful in short term, June 120 call 2.5 would be reasonable!
Sector Snap: Titanium Producers
Sector Snap: Titanium Producers
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