8-10-7(Fri.) Vix at new high

8-9-07, renewed subprime sell-off

8-3-07, Friday, the last minute panic!

8-6-07, monday, pre Fed run!

那指这次的跌法就强度和时间长度来看，与2006年五月份的相似。连跌两周，刺透上升三角支持线（见周线图），接下来的一周，按去年的走法，应该会有一短暂反弹，然后再继续下行去寻找上升通道的支持线，大约在2380-2400左右，也正好是去年的顶和今年增长的50%回落线。整个过程将持续2个月左右。如果在2380找不到support,那将意味着长期熊市的到来。上周五，Vix指数收于25以上，创三年新高，反弹已是客不容缓。再加上周二的FED会议，预计市场会有一周左右的喘息.短线抢反弹，Q是较好的侯选，QQQQ是所有指数中比较抗跌的，还处在100均线之上。下周一，如果横盘，或继续跌，跌破到47-46.75,买CALL。目标48-48.6.

weekly market anatomization

Chart of Spx

7-31-07 sell off

7-27-07 sell off

7-26-07 bloody sell off

7-24-07 sell off

Notes on maintanence margin observation:

1. spx -2.1%; Vix 19.08 up 13.5%
Aug19call(-50),1.3-1.35, 1.25
Aug20call (-30), 1.0-1.05, 1.0
RegTM 29696
CM 31490
CEL(Fund) 5142 (16.3%)

2. spx -1.91%, vix=18.83, up 12%
aug19call(-50), 1.15-1.35, 1.20
aug20call(-30),0.95-1.1, 1.05
RegTM 28200
CM 30057
CEL（Fund） 6583 (21.9%)

3. at close
spx 1514 -1.74%; vix 18.55 up 10.35%
aug19call(-50), 1.20
aug20call(-30), 1
RegTM 26302
CIM 29075
CEL 7568 (26%)

at noon I was tempted to sell 20 more aug calls
fortunately, I reminded myself the rule and plan,and didn't do it.
otherwise, I would get margin call when vix marched higher.
and I would be inforced to buy some back at loss!
So, always stick to the rule and watch the
excess liquidity level.

ER on Wed
algn,ati,cop,glw,exc,fcx
algn 0.11 -0.04 BMO
ATI 1.94 1.37 BMO
COP 2.66 2.87 BMO
GLW 0.32 0.26 BMO
EXC 1.02 0.85 BMO
FCX 2.71 1.70 BMO

akam,bud,ba,dade,genz,wfr,qcom
AKAM 0.30 0.20 12:00 PM
BUD 0.87 0.81 12:00 PM
BA 1.16 -0.21 12:00 PM
DADE0.47 0.43 12:00 PM
GENZ 0.81 0.68 12:00 PM
WFR 0.76 0.45 12:00 PM
QCOM 0.52 0.42 12:00 PM

acl,amag,aapl,cns,esrx,fmc,osg,phm,str
ACL 1.44 1.18 AMC
AMAG -0.60 -0.57 AMC
AAPL 0.72 0.54 AMC
CNS 0.42 0.28 AMC
ESRX 0.54 0.38 AMC
FMC 1.73 1.47 AMC
OSG 1.65 1.59 AMC
PHM -0.98 0.94 AMC
STR 0.60 0.52 AMC

ER watch for Tue.7/24/07

aks,bxp,bni,cme,cfc,cpo,dd,emc,esv,jec,mcd,edu,pcp
AKS 0.7 0.27 BMO
BXP 1.14 1.10 AMC
BNI 1.22 1.23 BMO
CME 3.67 3.12 BMO
CFC 0.95 1.15 BMO
CPO 0.57 0.40 BMO
DD 1.06 1.01 BMO
EMC 0.15 0.12 BMO
ESV 1.65 1.27 BMO
JEC 0.57 0.42 BMO
MCD 0.71 0.67 BMO
EDU 0.01 n/a BMO
PEP 0.89 0.81 BMO


amzn,av,bjs,lmt,pcp,uaua,x,usap
AMZN 0.15 0.05 12PM
AV 0.15 0.09 12PM
BJS 0.56 0.67 12PM
LMT 1.53 1.34 12PM
PCP 1.43 0.86 12PM
UAUA 1.39 1.09 12PM
X 2.35 3.10 12PM
USAP 0.87 0.69 12PM

dfg,hoku,ntri,stm,ups
DFG 0.80 0.71 AMC
HOKU -0.06 0.02 AMC
NTRI0.85 0.53 AMC
STM 0.15 0.18 5PM
UPS 1.03 0.97 7AM

ER of the week
Mon: axp,calm,cnh,hal,pre,stld,ahm,ips,jdas,tie
Axp 0.86/0.78 12PM
CALM BMO
CNH 0.95/0.65 12PM
HAL 0.56/0.48 BMO
PRE 2.50/2.01 AMC
STLD 1.04 0.89 AMC
AHM -0.18 1.37 12PM
IPS 2.76 3.25 12PM
JDAS 0.25 0.09 12PM
TIE 0.42 0.31 12PM

July OE day sell-off

Earnings to watch (7/16-20/2007）
Mon: etn,nvls
Teu: ko,intc,phhm,jnj,mtox,yhoo
Wed.:abt,all,mo,dal,ebay,jpm,jnpr,ne,pfe,luv
Thur.:amd,goog,hon,isrg,msft,mot,ndaq,rs,spwr,unp
Fri.:c,eric,slb,whr

Stock estER actER 1yr ago
ETN 1.47/1.68
NVLS 0.44/0.42

KO 0.82/0.74
INTC 0.19/0.15
PHHM 0.03/0.16
JNJ 1/0.98
MTOX 0.22/0.15
YHOO 0.11/0.11
MER 2.02/1.63

ABT 0.68/0.62
ALL 1.8/2
MO 1.13/1.41
DAL 0.57/-11.17
EBAY 0.32/0.24
JPM 1.09/0.99
JNPR 0.2/0.18
NE 2.15/1.32
PFE 0.5/0.5
LUV 0.22/0.33

AMD -0.85/0.18
GOOG 3.59/2.49
HON 0.75/0.63
ISRG 0.66/0.44
MSFT 0.31/0.31
MOT 0.01/0.33
NDAQ 0.37/0.13
RS 1.57/1.33
SPWR 0.21/0.11
UNP 1.62/1.44

C 1.13/1.05
ERIC 0.65/0.49
SLB 0.95/0.73
WHR 1.82/1.26

An example of accumulation on post-break out retreat

7-12-07 break out

7-10-07 sell off

VIX

DENNIS GARTMAN'S NOT-SO-SIMPLE RULES OF TRADING

1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position... not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading's carcinogen;
it is trading's driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!

2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.

3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding
losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.

4. This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget
strength, and weakness, weakness.

5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand
it however, and fewer still embrace it.

6. "Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent." These are Keynes' words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the
academics would have us believe.

7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into
the wettest paper sacks, for they break most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.

8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is
not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.

9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly.
In "good times," even errors turn to profits; in "bad times," the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.

10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we've known have the
simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here!

11. In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, "When they
are cryin', you should be buyin'! And when they are yellin', you should be sellin'!"

12. Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent and Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections: Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are;
we accept it as fact and we move on.

13. There Is Never Just One Cockroach: The lesson of bad news on most stocks is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with
detrimental effect upon price, until such time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions.

14. Be Patient with Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient with Losing Trades: The older we get, the more small losses we take each year...
and our profits grow accordingly.

15. Do More of That Which Is Working and Less of That Which Is Not: This works in life as well as trading. Do the things that have been proven
of merit. Add to winning trades; cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a "secret" to trading (and of life), this is it.

16. All Rules Are Meant To Be Broken.... but only very, very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and
still prosper.

6-27-07: Vix slipped sharply

6-26-07：Vix spiked, but indices lower slightly!

Market summary

Dow13,337.66-14.39 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq2,574.16-2.92 (-0.11%)
S&P 5001,492.89-4.85 (-0.32%)
10y bond5.06%+0.01(0.20%)