Bond basics

Sector performance and Vix option of 6-13-07

6-12-07 sector performance and Vix option

Earnings of the week
Teu.
LEH 1.88 1.69 BMO

Thur.
ADBE 0.35 0.31 AMC
BSC 3.50 3.72 12:00PM
FRE 1.09 2.80 BMO
GS 4.79 4.78 BMO

Sector performance the day after sell-off

Utility solf off the hardest, but climbed the least
Technology sector seems the strongest in these 2 up/down days

Vix straddle view

6-7-07 sell off and Vix spike

Vix and its option on 6-1-70

Stock traded higher in a big downday

crzo,hte,x,b,vsec,jci,ges,dltr,nile,aapl

crzo and hte are the rare standouts in the oil sector, up in up volume

x in steel sector is in new high, helped by JPM's upgrade

vsec and b are the leaders in the Aerospace/defense sector, and b was recommended by Cramer

jci in machinery sector was recommended by an analyst

ges, dltr and nile are the big winners in retailer sector

aapl, as always, just ignored the big market and moved in her own way.

Among other strong stocks are ice,crox, hpq,nvda,goog

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/careerist/34834

台湾股市泡沫是大陆的前车之鉴──台湾股市从泡沫泛滥到破灭的过程
香港《经济导报》2007年第22期朱磊/(提要)大陆股市狂升的情景，早在上世纪八十年代中期的台湾也出现过。当年由于台湾连续出现贸易顺差，大量外资涌入，迫使新台币大幅升值，造成股市和房市狂升不止，泡沫化严重。当局屡屡采取措施对应，并祭出了釜底抽薪的一系列办法，其后金融泡沫破灭，台湾经济也受到严重打击，彻底告别了经济高增长时代，遗患直至今时今日。台湾股市泡沫是上世纪八十年代中期，台湾出现连续贸易顺差，同时大量外资涌入，形成国际收支双盈余，迫使新台币兑美元汇率短短两年间大幅升值近40%，由于民间的投资机会和渠道有限，大量游资进入股票和房地产市场，引发股市和房市泡沫。从1986年台湾股价指数超过1000点，到1990年超过12000点，期间经历长达40个月的多头，而后股价开始狂跌，在不到八个月的时间内，股价跌落万点以上，到1990年10月1日，跌到2485点，造成台湾空前的泡沫破灭，并给台湾经济带来长期的负面影响。
......

1. 止损，止损，止损！
2. 有疑问的时候，离场！
3. 忘掉你的入场价
4. 别频繁交易
5. 不要向下摊平
6. 别让利润变成亏损
7. 跟着股市走，别跟朋友走！
8. 该卖股票的时候，要当机立断，千万别迟疑！
9.别将“股价很低了”当成买的理由，也别将“股价很高了”当成卖的理由！
10. 定好计划，按既定方针办
11. 市场从来不会错，你自己的想法常常是错的

http://huarenbbs.com/showthread.php?t=488

Vix option

Long Vix with Credit：Sell (middle term) Put+Buy Call.

Risk: If vix stays under strike price for next few month (not likely！), you will lose the premium paid for the call.

Reward: If Vix spikes above the strike price, sell the Call and buy back the puts to lock profits.

Symbol Last Change Vol Bid Ask Open Int. Symbol Last Change Vol Bid Ask Open Int.
JUN
VIXFC 0.45 -0.05 1,647.00 0.40 0.55 47,046.00 15.00 VIXRC 2.05 +0.15 100.00 1.95 2.10 9,786.00

July
VIXGC 1.14 -0.06 78.00 1.10 1.20 28,996.00 15.00 VIXSC 1.90 -0.02 8,030.00 1.85 1.90 13,264.00

Aug
VIXHC 1.60 522.00 1.55 1.65 12,700.00 15.00 VIXTC 1.95 -0.05 300.00 1.90 2.10 5,184.00

Sept
VIXIC 1.95 +0.11 46.00 1.80 1.95 15,329.00 15.00 VIXUC 1.95 15,000.00 1.90 2.15 15,000.00

Zacks #1 Rank Top Performers:
FWLT, CRY, ASK,SNHY, DRYS

How to trade Vix

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/06/NewVIX.asp

http://www.learnmoney.co.uk/spread-betting/news-nov-3.html

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/vix.htm

http://www.learnmoney.co.uk/spread-betting/news-oct-3.html

http://www.thestreet.com/options/options/10266389.html
... the primary players in these VIX options under "normal circumstances" will be call buyers or put sellers...


http://w3.quris.net/ebulletin/0702/SST_0702_OptionsCorner.jsp


http://optionsguy.financialblogs.com/post/blog/decoding_the_vix_ii.html
...VIX option is priced based upon the VIX futures contract , which is tradable, not the VIX index, which is not tradable....

http://www.theoptionclub.com/trading_vix_options.html

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/search/label/CFE

when the VIX jumped 64% from February 26th to February 27th, the nearest futures, the March ’07 VIX, moved less than half as much in percentage terms. Looking further out, the August ’07 VIX futures moved about one tenth of the VIX index, while the November ’07 VIX futures moved about one thirtieth as much as the VIX did.

Margin requirement:

Margin:Purchases of puts or calls with 9 months or less until expiration must be paid for in full. Writers of uncovered puts or calls must deposit / maintain 100% of the option proceeds* plus 15% of the aggregate contract value (current index level x $100) minus the amount by which the option is out-of-the-money, if any, subject to a minimum for calls of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate contract value and a minimum for puts of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate exercise price amount. (*For calculating maintenance margin, use option current market value instead of option proceeds.) Additional margin may be required pursuant to Exchange Rule 12.10.

For example,

1. if sell 13 put (of vix at 14) for 0.4: 0.4x100+(14-13)x100x15%=235, and 5k can sell 21 puts.

2. if sell 20 call of (vix@14) for 0.4: 0.4x100+14x100x10%=180, and 5k can sell 27 calls.

Vix on wikipedia.org

Vix White book http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf

Risk: there 2 of risk. one is OE vix price, which has a risk to trade over or below the strick price of sold call or put. this can be well controlled by only selling option deep OTM, for example, call above 25, put below 13 (or 40% away from current Vix). For the past year, there had never been a case for vix ended higher than 18 in OE day. So it may be safe to sell call with strike price over 19. but still need to be agile in watching vix. on the low price end of vix for put, it's more predicatible according to the current market performance.

the 2nd risk is margin maitance risk. I had lost half of my account value by not knowing enough of this risk. this is like a monster who can completely ruin your yard if you let him out of control!

Qs

ASTI
need to solve this problem, stop at 7$!

Payable Ex Date Company Symbol Optionable? Ratio Announced Add To My
Calendar

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

May 04 May 07 AZZ Inc. AZZ N 2-1 Apr 09
May 09 May 10 AptarGroup ATR N 2-1 Apr 18
May 11 May 14 Meridian Bioscience VIVO Y 3-2 Apr 19
May 21 May 22 IDEX Corp IEX Y 3-2 Apr 04
May 22 May 23 Brookfield Pptys BPO N 3-2 Feb 07
May 25 May 29 Atlas America ATLS N 3-2 Apr 27
May 28 Gildan Activewear GIL N 2-1 May 03
May 29 May 30 Potash POT Y 3-1 May 02
May 30 Tesoro Petroleum TSO Y 2-1 May 01
May 30 May 31 FEMSA FMX Y 3-1 May 16 Add
May 31 Varian Semi VSEA Y 3-2 Apr 24 Add
May 31 Jun 01 Geo Group GEO Y 2-1 May 01 Add
Jun 01 NRG Energy NRG Y 2-1 May 02 Add
Jun 01 Stericycle SRCL Y 2-1 May 17 Add

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/07/s5.html?tso

Naz: resistance, 2580
support, 2531

qqqq: resistance, 46, 45.5
support, 47

Dow, support 13340

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Stocks withstood the storm of 5-24
NTRI,WEN,ESRX,WCG,CRH,ACL,AMZN,UAUA,RIMM

MITBBS psp swing short/long list for 5-25
AFFX,KBH,LEN,WCI,VMC,dj

Railroad on Buffet