Saturday, July 14, 2007

Earnings to watch (7/16-20/2007)
Mon: etn,nvls
Teu: ko,intc,phhm,jnj,mtox,yhoo
Wed.:abt,all,mo,dal,ebay,jpm,jnpr,ne,pfe,luv
Thur.:amd,goog,hon,isrg,msft,mot,ndaq,rs,spwr,unp
Fri.:c,eric,slb,whr

Stock estER actER 1yr ago
ETN 1.47/1.68
NVLS 0.44/0.42

KO 0.82/0.74
INTC 0.19/0.15
PHHM 0.03/0.16
JNJ 1/0.98
MTOX 0.22/0.15
YHOO 0.11/0.11
MER 2.02/1.63

ABT 0.68/0.62
ALL 1.8/2
MO 1.13/1.41
DAL 0.57/-11.17
EBAY 0.32/0.24
JPM 1.09/0.99
JNPR 0.2/0.18
NE 2.15/1.32
PFE 0.5/0.5
LUV 0.22/0.33

AMD -0.85/0.18
GOOG 3.59/2.49
HON 0.75/0.63
ISRG 0.66/0.44
MSFT 0.31/0.31
MOT 0.01/0.33
NDAQ 0.37/0.13
RS 1.57/1.33
SPWR 0.21/0.11
UNP 1.62/1.44

C 1.13/1.05
ERIC 0.65/0.49
SLB 0.95/0.73
WHR 1.82/1.26
An example of accumulation on post-break out retreat

7-12-07 break out


Tuesday, July 10, 2007

7-10-07 sell off



Friday, June 29, 2007

Thursday, June 28, 2007

DENNIS GARTMAN'S NOT-SO-SIMPLE RULES OF TRADING

1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position... not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading's carcinogen;
it is trading's driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!

2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.

3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding
losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.

4. This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget
strength, and weakness, weakness.

5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand
it however, and fewer still embrace it.

6. "Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent." These are Keynes' words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the
academics would have us believe.

7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into
the wettest paper sacks, for they break most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.

8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is
not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.

9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly.
In "good times," even errors turn to profits; in "bad times," the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.

10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we've known have the
simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here!

11. In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, "When they
are cryin', you should be buyin'! And when they are yellin', you should be sellin'!"

12. Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent and Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections: Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are;
we accept it as fact and we move on.

13. There Is Never Just One Cockroach: The lesson of bad news on most stocks is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with
detrimental effect upon price, until such time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions.

14. Be Patient with Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient with Losing Trades: The older we get, the more small losses we take each year...
and our profits grow accordingly.

15. Do More of That Which Is Working and Less of That Which Is Not: This works in life as well as trading. Do the things that have been proven
of merit. Add to winning trades; cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a "secret" to trading (and of life), this is it.

16. All Rules Are Meant To Be Broken.... but only very, very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and
still prosper.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

6-27-07: Vix slipped sharply



Tuesday, June 26, 2007

6-26-07:Vix spiked, but indices lower slightly!


Market summary

Dow13,337.66-14.39 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq2,574.16-2.92 (-0.11%)
S&P 5001,492.89-4.85 (-0.32%)
10y bond5.06%+0.01(0.20%)

Saturday, June 23, 2007

一首让人动容的老歌:明天会更好!


Friday, June 22, 2007

6-22-07(Fri.) sell off


* July19call, high0.6 low0.4, july20call high0.5 low0.3

Monday, June 18, 2007

Should You Buy Stocks That Are Down 5 Consective Days?
......
These are stocks that have closed down for five or more consecutive days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that close down for five or more days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge......

Sunday, June 17, 2007

The Life of Vix Jun Call (20,19,18,17)




The life of VIX Jun Put(12,13)









*6-19(Teu.) SPX closed at 1533.70, Vix closed at 12.84
6-20(Wed.) SPX opened at 1533.68, Vix opened at 12.76
However,
Vro set at 13.01, very interesting!

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Bond basics
Sector performance and Vix option of 6-13-07



Tuesday, June 12, 2007

6-12-07 sector performance and Vix option



Sunday, June 10, 2007

Earnings of the week
Teu.
LEH 1.88 1.69 BMO

Thur.
ADBE 0.35 0.31 AMC
BSC 3.50 3.72 12:00PM
FRE 1.09 2.80 BMO
GS 4.79 4.78 BMO

Friday, June 08, 2007

Sector performance the day after sell-off


Utility solf off the hardest, but climbed the least
Technology sector seems the strongest in these 2 up/down days




Vix straddle view



Thursday, June 07, 2007

6-7-07 sell off and Vix spike










Vix and its option on 6-1-70



Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Stock traded higher in a big downday

crzo,hte,x,b,vsec,jci,ges,dltr,nile,aapl

crzo and hte are the rare standouts in the oil sector, up in up volume

x in steel sector is in new high, helped by JPM's upgrade

vsec and b are the leaders in the Aerospace/defense sector, and b was recommended by Cramer

jci in machinery sector was recommended by an analyst

ges, dltr and nile are the big winners in retailer sector

aapl, as always, just ignored the big market and moved in her own way.

Among other strong stocks are ice,crox, hpq,nvda,goog