Saturday, March 03, 2007


Nasdaq closed at 2368 for the bloody week and lost 6.5% in 10 days. Next week,the index may test the 38.2% retracement at 2333 (1.5% drop) if going lower, and it can be done anytime soon next week. On the other hand, the index has been way oversold, and it can also go up anytime. If it does, the 1st upside resistance will be around 2400, which was roughly the support level during the consolidation period back to Nov-Dec of last year.


The Dow closed at 12114 and lost 5.3% from the peak. Looks like it's also imminent to test the 38.2% retracement at 11986 (1.05% drop). Upside resistance will be at 12354 area, which happens to be the MA100 level.


The SP500 closed at 1387, eyeing for 1371 at the 38.2% retracement.(another 1.15% drop). If the market does touch the 38.2% level, short cover is expected and will lead to a rebounce back to 1400 level.



Just like Dow and Nas, the Spy, now at 139, is also posing to test the 38.2% retracement at 137. If bouncing back, however, the resistance will be around 141 area, which is the MA100 level.


Mdy may also touch the 38.2% retracement level soon, and it is around 148 and also happens to be its MA100. The upside resistance will be around 153.

In one word, the whole market is ready to test the 38.2% levels, it may bounce back from there to the level of last wednesday's rest area. For short term players, watch the market closely, if the market opens lower, wait until it hits the 38.2% level to buy. If the market opens higher or flat, it might also be brought down to the 38.2% level, also wait for the reversal signal to buy.

Again, 38.2% levels for Nas 1333 (-1.5%), Dow 11986(-1.05%), spy500 1371 (-1.15%).

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