Earnings of the Week

Mon
ACH
MR0.13
STP0.20

Tue
GS4.90

Wed
GM1.19
LEH1.95
JUPM0.06

Thur
BSC3.80
BONT4.56

Big Picture of the Martket

Near term support (EMA200) and Resistance (EMA20)
Dow 12276 12381 <---> 11950
Naz 2388 2423.6 <---> 2340
Spx 1403 1415.5 <---> 1366

Big Picture

AAPL PUT play for OE week

Price as 3/9/07 for aapl put
Strike Mar April
85 0.3 1.85
90 2.4 4

1. buy April85Put 1.755 (27.85% volatility) then
Fri.85 2.74 56%
Fri.90 1.05 -40.2%
Gain/loss: 1.39:1

2. April90Put 3.92 (26%)
85 5.74 46.4%
90 2.69 -31.4%
Gain/loss: 1.48:1

3. Mar90Put 2.24 (22.5%)
85 5 118%
90 0 -100%
===========================
GOOG 452.96, April 450 Put Fri. 14.5 IV 27.7%

Mon GOOG452.96, 14

Fri.GOOG440, 19.6, 40%
Fri.GOOG450, 14.4, 2.8%
Fri.GOOG460, 10.27, -26.6%

Evidence of stock price clustering at strike price.

For the past year at every month's OE day (vertical cyan grid),both AAPL and GOOG tended to close at strike price (horizontal grid). If AAPL and GOOG can be manupulated on such a degree of precision, let alone other small cap stocks.

Let's just wait for a week, see where AAPL and GOOG ends up on Friday?

Today closed RMBS Mar.20 Call at 0.7, take heavy loss!!!

Bought
4 SPY May 140 Put at 2.7
20 QQQQ April 43 Put at 1.035 (average of 1+1.07)
39 QID at 55.157

Option seems relatively expensive during the opening session of the market, this high volatile time should be avoided for buying options if not for day trading. Early afternoon seems a better time for entering option order, when the market become stable and bored.

NAS 2389,
Resistance: 2406 (EMA100)-2414(38.2%); 2438(EMA50)
Support: 2344(last low, EMA200)

Dow 12261
Resistance: 12283(EMA100)-12328(38.2%); 12438
Support: 12039(last low), 11989(38.2%), 11948(EMA200)

SPX 1402
Resistance: 1403(EMA100)-1407.5(38.2%); 1421
Support: 1371(last low) 1374(38.2%) 1365(EMA200)

Nasdaq vs ^VIX curve, watch the price drop on the index and the uprising on the VIX

Tody, Mama opened high in huge volume due to its strong earnings.

Entered at 6.08 in 2nd up waves, then it made a high at 6.2 and another higher high at 6.22, then it retrace backe and made a lower high 6.16. This is a strong signal for exit. Should get out around 6.05. however, I just ignored the signal and until it broke down around 5.9, out at 5.84, lost 0.22 cents.

Never ignore the market signal, don't trade on hope!!!!

watch List

Vlo 59.8 break out, Jun Call option
60.00 VLOFL.X 3.70 0.80 3.70 3.80 2,821 9,672
62.50 VLOFZ.X 2.55 0.50 2.55 2.70 10,898 3,186

April 60 Call 1.2
May 60 call 1.6
Jun 60 call 3.2

ICE 128, support around 123-126

MA 99.7, support around 95

NAS 2374.6,
Resistance: 2406 (EMA100)-2414(38.2%); 31-39 points
Support: 2344(last low)-2340 (EMA200); 31-35 points

Dow 12192
Resistance: 12284(EMA100)-12328(38.2%) 92-136 points
Support: 12039(last low), 11989(38.2%), 11945(EMA200) 153-247 points

SPX 1392
Resistance: 1403(EMA100)-1407.5(38.2%); 11-16 points
Support: 1371(last low) 1374(38.2%) 1366(EMA200); 21-26 points

NEW was very active again in early session. I was tempted to play it again.

Entered in at 5.48 in a rising with big volume, after seeing double top around 5.77, then exited the position at 5.74. Earned some grace back from yesterday's loss.

NEW spent the whole day in a berish trend.

Lesson: I still think I got a little bit emotion for the trade as I wanted to win the game back. I was luck for that, but this doesn't mean I have my strategy going well. Never trade with uncontrolled emotions.

New showed strength with huge volume, get in @5.90 on the big rise, then the stock went sideway with dimished volume, should be out in break even, but I was hoping it might turn higher in the afternoon. Around 2pm, the stock break down, out at 9.65, took loss 250$.

Lesson: should not stick to the stock when finding it went side way! DT should bet on those strong upside after entry, otherwise, it means the decision isn't correct.

Goog gapped up about 2% at 451, bought April 480CAll at 8.3, and April 390Put@2.10" 390Put@2.10. Interestingly, both call and put price dropped dramatically when the stock doing consolidation around 451$.

In the afternoon, GOOG has a nice run, to closed @456$. Exited the call @ 9$.

The put closed @1.6 $(actually 1.45)

Lesson: don't buy option in a high volatile time, like this morning market gapped up huge, should wait until the market became stablized!

NAS 2385,
resistance: (2413 38.2%) 2424 (MA100) 1.6%; 2452(MA50)

Dow 12208
Resistance: (12330 38.2%) 12347(MA100) 1.1%

SPX 1395
Resistance: (1406 38.2%) 1409 (MA100) 1.0%

GOOG Option:
premaket 447, up 6$, up target 455-464, support 438,
April 480 Call 7.83 target 10.35-13.78, support 5.55$

Risk too high?
April 390 Put 2.68, target 3.74 (39.6%)
April 400 Put 3.95 target 5.41 (37%)

http://www.ivolatility.com/calc/?ticker=SPX

NAS 2341, 38.2% 2333, weeklyMA50 2296 (-1.92%), MA200 2287, 50% 2272
Dow 12150, 38.2% 11989 (-1.33%), MA200 11785 50% 11740 Weekly MA50 11729 (-3.46%)
SPX 1374, 38.2% 1371, MA200 1345 50% 1343 weekly MA50 1341 (-2.41%)

GOPCT.X 42.20 7.30 40.30 40.90 247 1,079 400.00 GOPOT.X 0.75 0.05 0.80 0.85 1,068 4,424
GOPCB.X 31.70 5.90 31.00 31.40 69 853 410.00 GOPOB.X 1.45 0.38 1.40 1.45 1,900 3,949
GOPCD.X 22.80 8.10 22.30 22.70 434 1,077 420.00 GOPOD.X 2.70 0.80 2.65 2.75 2,445 6,108
GOPCF.X 15.00 7.61 14.80 15.00 1,117 1,689 430.00 GOPOF.X 5.10 1.90 5.00 5.20 6,262 9,276
GOPCH.X 9.00 6.20 8.80 9.00 6,212 3,138 440.00 GOPOH.X 9.00 3.10 9.00 9.10 7,751 11,717
GOPCJ.X 5.00 4.20 4.80 5.00 12,951 10,974 450.00 GOPOJ.X 14.90 4.90 15.10 15.20 3,491 14,602
GOPCL.X 2.55 2.65 2.50 2.60 10,677 10,678 460.00 GOPOL.X 22.60 6.80 22.60 23.00 1,695 11,478
GOPCG.X 1.30 1.30 1.25 1.30 6,456 15,487 470.00 GOPOG.X 31.50 7.70 31.50 32.00 568 9,038
GOPCI.X 0.75 0.56 0.70 0.75 2,325 17,078 480.00 GOPOI.X 41.00 8.50 40.90 41.60 539 6,053